Our focus will be on the Services PMI figure today and we’ll look for a minimum deviation of 2.0 from the forecast release figure. If we get at least 59.0 or better, we could see further demand in the GBP that should justify for LONG trades on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs. If we get a 55.0 or worse release, GBP could weaken or at least show a quick profit taking reaction from the overnight bullish move.
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10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.8 Previous 55.7
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 57.0 SELL 52.0
We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and we’ll be looking for a minimum of 2.5 of deviation either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the sentiment of risk appetite, thus USD could remain under pressure; however, if the release is negative, below the medium 50 level, we could see stronger USD and stronger JPY throughout the rest of the US session. Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction of December.
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today we’ll focus on the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference of at least 0.6% from the Forecast, therefore a positive 1.1% will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% will be a negative for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.
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10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.6 Previous 50.9
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 54.0 SELL 49.0
Today we’ll focus once again on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI, which is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for directional bias on the near-term future of the economy. With the current expectation just above the 50 level at 51.6, in the event that 54.0 is reached, we could see risk appetite returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 49.0 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possible stronger USD from risk aversion flows.
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4:30am (NY Time) UK Service PMI Forecast 55.4 Previous 55.3
ACTION: GBP/USD SELL 53.40 BUY 57.40
We’ll be trading the Services PMI figure today and we’ll look for a minimum surprise factor of 2.0 from the forecast release figure. If we get at least 57.40 or better, we could see support in the GBP and a possible LONG trade for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY could be justified. If we get a 54.4 or worse release, GBP could weaken significantly ahead of the BOE rate decision on Thursday, thus exaggerating the effect of this release.
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10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.1 Previous 52.6
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 55.5 SELL 50.0
With US ISM Manufacturing release today, we’ll be looking for a minimum of 2.5 of deviation either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the sentiment of risk appetite, thus USD could remain under pressure; however, if the release is negative, below the medium 50 level, we could see stronger USD and stronger JPY throughout the rest of the US session. Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of the direction of November.
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This is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the pace of the recovery. We’ll be looking for a deviation of at least 0.6% from the consensus, therefore a positive 1.2% will be bullish signal for NZD, or a -0.1% will be a negative signal for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.
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