by Henry Liu on November 17, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
Our focus will be on the Core CPI release and we are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
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by Henry Liu on November 15, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2%
Our focus will be on the Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am. It is important that there is no conflict with the numbers between in order for us to get into a trade. The Core release is more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the seasonal Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading, and the headline is currently forecasted at 1.0% with a previous release of -2.1%.
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by Henry Liu on October 14, 2009
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101509-uscpi/101509-uscpi.mp4 480 360]
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
We are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the CPI number (core) increases to a release at 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
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by Henry Liu on October 13, 2009
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101409-usretail/101409-usretail.mp4 480 360]
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.0% SELL -0.3%
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by Henry Liu on September 14, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2%
Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the headline and core releases in order for us to get into a trade. Usually the Core Retail Sales is more accurate reflection of Retail sales because it excludes the Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent “CASH FOR CLUNKERS” program, which has used up all of the funds allocated for it by the government; therefore the headline Retail Sales should be significantly higher than the Core Retail Sales, as the Headline number is expected to be at 1.9% (E). However, the US Core Retail Sales is the real focus of the economy which is a measure of real consumer discretionary spending.
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by Henry Liu on September 1, 2009
2:00pm (NY Time) US FOMC Meeting Minutes
ACTION: N/A
We saw some optimism in the market from last FOMC rate decision as the accompanied statement clearly indicated some improvement and stabilization in the economy. Therefore, with the reminder of this FOMC Meeting Minutes, market could once again return to that state of optimism and some limited risk appetite sentiment may present itself.
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by Henry Liu on August 12, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.8% SELL -0.3%
Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the headline and core releases in order for us to get into a trade. Usually the Core Retail Sales is more accurate reflection of Retail sales because it excludes the Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent cash for clunker program. US Core Retail Sales is the real focus of the economy which is a measure of consumer discretionary spending.
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