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We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same time of this release, therefore I’d recommend to either trade the U.S. release or concentrate on the Canadian release, do not try to trade both of them together… Here’s the forecast for U.S. Adv. GDP:
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 2.5% Previous 2.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 2.8% SELL 2.2%
We’ve got several trades this week that worked out according to my signals. I hope you were able to make some pips, I certainly did 
Here are the results:
NEWS TRADING
1. Tue July 20, 2010 9:00am EST (NY Time) CA BOC Overnight Rate- No Trade.
2. Thu July 22, 2010 4:30am EST (NY Time) UK Retail Sales m/m – No Trade
We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here’s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
8:30am (NY Time) US NFP Forecast -110K Previous 431K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 9.8% Previous 9.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -30K SELL -180K
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -110K as median forecast figure taken from different surveys, and the previous release figure was at +431K. If you remember what took place during last NFP release, market reacted with risk aversion sentiment as the actual figure missed expectation by 90K, causing stronger demand for safe-haven currencies such as the USD and JPY across the board.
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision today and most analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged especially after the series of worse than expected economic data during the past few weeks, including but not limited to housing, employment, and retail sales.
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY). If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY). Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
Here is a basic plan to trade US Core Retail Sales which is scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am NY Time, and here are the forecasts:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY (CORE) BUY 0.8% SELL -0.4%
ISM Manufacturing PMI is similar to the UK Manufacturing PMI, which is also a leading indicator and it's usually released at the beginning of the month; traders monitor this release as it may help to predict … [Read More...]
We're also getting the Core Retail Sales release from Canada today, and with the Core CPI being released just about 90 minutes earlier, it’s important to take the context of the market into consideration … [Read More...]
4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 53.9 Previous 53.2 ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 56.00 SELL 51.5 We will watch this report closely as the UK … [Read More...]
10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 52.3 Previous 48.4 ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 55.5 BUY 49.0 We’ll be focusing once again on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is … [Read More...]
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.2% ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6% We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity from the quarterly GDP … [Read More...]
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.0 Previous 50.5 ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY We’ll focusing on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI today, … [Read More...]
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.2% 8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.3% ACTION: … [Read More...]
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