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BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE´s final decision turns out to be a surprise, here´s the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APT (Asset Purchasing Target) Forecast 325B Previous 325B
DEVIATION: 0.25% interest rate / 25B Pound for APT
(BUY GBP @ +0.75% rate / SELL GBP @ +350B APT)
We´ll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at 4:30am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here´s the forecast:
4:28am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 54.5 Previous 55.3
Deviation: 2.5 ~ 3.5
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator that is usually released early in the month. Traders pay attention to this release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the currency for the rest of the month. Here is the forecast:
4:28am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.5 Previous 52.1
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 53.5 SELL 49.0
UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.1% Previous -0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.4% SELL -0.2%
Today´s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet very tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.8%
ACTION: GBP/JPY BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%
The Trade Plan
The monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it´s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.
MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it´s customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no changes to either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, UK´s quantitative easing program); today will be the first time for a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the forecast:
4:30am NY Time UK MPC Minutes Forecast 0-0-9 Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: N/A
We´ll be trading the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 4:30am NY Time today. We´ll be looking at the yearly release figure and the market could react with lots of volatility as CPI is the basic measurement of Inflation, therefore expect to see more exaggerated moves if we get a huge surprise release. Here is the forecast:
4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 3.5% Previous 3.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 3.8% / SELL 3.0%
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