9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the last time in 2009, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 10K Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 40K BUY -20K
Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.4% BUY -0.2%
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP has a strong effect on the cash rate of the CAD, as better economy affects BOC’s rate outlook and future monetary policy.
8:30am (NY Time) CA Core Retail Sales m/m Forecast 0.5% Previous-0.8%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 1.1%
We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada, not the headline release, which has a consensus expectation of 0.6% instead of the 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release on the Retail sales number means more consumption, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a more accurate look of the actual economy.
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) renders its Overnight Rate decisions 8 times a year and today’s meeting will be widely watched by traders and speculators alike. Since interest rate policy serves as a tool to fight inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event from Canada for currency traders.
7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
Our tradable deviation for the Canadian Core CPI based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable releases of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
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Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 16 ~ 20, 2012
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Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2176)
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