by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
Click on post title above to read the full article.
by Henry Liu on January 28, 2010
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
Click on post title above to read the full article.
by Henry Liu on December 4, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll Forecast -120K Previous -190K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -50K SELL -200K
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
Click on post title above to read the full article.
by Henry Liu on December 1, 2009
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
Our focus today will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4%. Therefore, if we get a 1.0% or -021%, we’d have our trigger to get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release, with a high probability of seeing the market moving over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
Click on post title above to read the full article.
by Henry Liu on November 30, 2009
4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.1 Previous 53.7
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 56.0 SELL 52.0
We will be trading the Manufacturing PMI number from UK today, it is expected to be at 54.0 and it is considered as a positive release given the fact that anything above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector.
Click on post title above to read the full article.
by Henry Liu on November 23, 2009
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.2% SELL 2.6%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number. Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.
Click on post title above to read the full article.
by Henry Liu on November 10, 2009
4:45pm (NY Time) NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 1.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
today we’ll focus on the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference of at least 0.6% from the Forecast, therefore a positive 1.1% will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% will be a negative for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.
Click on post title above to read the full article.
Forex Market Review and Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 14 ~ 18, 2012)
Forex Market Review And Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 21 ~ 25, 2012)
Forex Trading Strategies #3 – The Correct Trend
US FOMC Meeting Minutes – May 16, 2012 – Forex Strategy
Forex Trading Strategies #4 – Support and Resistance
Forex Trading Strategies #5 – Market Psychology
Forex Trading Strategies #2 – The Right Timing
US Core CPI – May 15, 2012 – Forex Strategy