US Prelim GDP is also known as the 2nd Quarterly GDP release. Since GDP is the measurement of the economy, traders pay more attention to this release as any surprise numbers could change the short term trend… Here is the forecast:
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 3.5% Previous 3.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.8% SELL 3.2%
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their finalinterest rate decision today for 2010, and consensus expectations are to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders. However, the important focus today will be the tentative statement that usually only accompanies BOE rate decision if there is a change, but BOE may just issue a statement regarding their APF program, as it has been much of the focus lately.
3:30am SNB Libor Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CHF SELL 0.50%
SNB (Swiss National Bank) is likely to keep the 3-month libor rate at the current level of 0.25%, as surveyed by reuters today. As a matter of fact, most analysts agree that SNB is likely to keep rates unchanged until mid 2010. As SNB is not in the habit of surprising the market, it is practically 100% that SNB will keep rates at 0.25%; however, just in the event that SNB does hike rates, we will SELL USD/CHF immediately.
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD N/A
It is widely expected that ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate. ECB’s next interest rate move is likely to be a hike, but it probably won’t take place until the end of first quarter of 2010 as I’ve pointed out in the analysis during last ECB Rate Decision.
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -149K Previous -203K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -80K SELL -230K
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.2% SELL 2.6%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number. Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.
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Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2176)
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