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Surprise Rate

3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% once again during today’s rate decision, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg.  As a matter of fact, there seems to be no fundamental reason supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future, as the current inflationary target for NZD remains below the magical 2.0% level until perhaps 2011…


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7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision  Forecast 1.00%  Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD       N/A

It is widely expected that ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged.  Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate.  ECB’s next interest rate move is likely to be a hike, but it probably won’t take place until the end of first quarter of 2010 as I’ve pointed out in the analysis during last ECB Rate Decision.


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RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 10/28/09

by Henry Liu on October 27, 2009

4:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current rate of 2.50%, as unanimously agreed by 11 economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg.  As a matter of fact, New Zealand’s economic outlook is still bleak, although NZD has appreciated over 32% in the past 6 months benefited from the surge in risk appetite  sentiment, but sentiment alone will not make RBNZ hike rates…


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Canada BOC Overnight Rate Decision 10/20/09

by Henry Liu on October 19, 2009

9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision   Forecast 0.25%      Previous 0.25%
ACTION:  USD/CAD  Depend on Market Condition

BOC (Bank of Canada) renders its Overnight Rate decisions 8 times a year and today’s meeting will be widely watched by traders and speculators alike. Since interest rate policy serves as a tool to fight inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event from Canada for currency traders.


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Market Economic Outlook as of 10/12/09

by Henry Liu on October 12, 2009

Last week was a surprising week to say the least, as the biggest news out of the entire currency market was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiking its bank rate by 0.25% to 3.25% and surprised the entire world in the process…

Needless to say, immediately after the release, Equity market ended its downward correction, and a renewed sense of risk appetite took over, pushing all high-yield currencies, commodity currencies, Equity indices, to fresh new 2009 highs.


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