by Henry Liu on November 17, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
Our focus will be on the Core CPI release and we are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
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by Henry Liu on November 16, 2009
4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y Forecast 1.4% Previous 1.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.7% SELL 1.1%
We’ll focus on the CPI release today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is at 0.3%. If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 1.7% then we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the Inflation number decreases to 1.1% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we should see market overreaction. If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.
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by Henry Liu on October 15, 2009
7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
Our tradable deviation for the Canadian Core CPI based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable releases of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
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by Henry Liu on October 14, 2009
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101509-uscpi/101509-uscpi.mp4 480 360]
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
We are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the CPI number (core) increases to a release at 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
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by Henry Liu on October 12, 2009
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101309-ukcpi/101309-ukcpi.mp4 480 360]
4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y Forecast 1.3% Previous 1.6%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.5% SELL 1.1%
Our surprise factor (or deviation) is at 0.2%. If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 1.5% then we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the Inflation number decreases to 1.1% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we tend to see the market overreact. If our S. Factor gets hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.
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