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We´ll be trading the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 4:30am NY Time today. We´ll be looking at the yearly release figure and the market could react with lots of volatility as CPI is the basic measurement of Inflation, therefore expect to see more exaggerated moves if we get a huge surprise release. Here is the forecast:
4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 3.6% Previous 4.2%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 4.2% / SELL 3.3%
We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
ACTION: 220K SELL EURUSD / 80K BUY EURUSD
ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator, traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend.
Here´s the forecast:
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.5 Previous 53.9
ACTION: 57.0 SELL EURUSD/ 52.0 BUY EURUSD
Trade Plan
We´ll be looking for around 2.5 points of deviation for this trade. If a 57.0 or better number is released, we could see some USD strength, thererefore SELL EURUSD. If the opposite is true, or 52.0 figure is released, expect to see weaker USD in the short term, therefore we should BUY EURUSD.
Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.5%
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.7% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDCHF / -0.1% SELL USDJPY
We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.
Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.8% SELL EURUSD / -0.2% SELL USDJPY
We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.7% Previous 8.6%
ACTION: 220K BUY AUDJPY / 80K SELL USDJPY
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