RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news media companies. As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement and hawkish tone during previous RBNZ rate statements from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 03/10/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A
We’ll be focusing on the ECB (European Central Bank) Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet press conference today as he releases an official statement from ECB regarding the official Interest Decision, followed with a brief Q&A Session… Here is an overview of the situation
This is a preview of FOREX ECB Trichet Press Conference 03/04/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.0 Previous 50.5
ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY
We’ll focusing on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI today, or better known as the U.S. Services PMI, and as all Purchasing Manager’s Indexes, it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.0, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see some USD strength and JPY weakness; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 03/03/2010. Read More...
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity from the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by analysts expectation from Bloomberg to be at 0.9%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number or flat (0.0%) release.
This is a preview of Australia GDP q/q 03/02/2010. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.8% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: BUY 1.4% SELL 0.2% AUD/USD
We’ll be looking for a possible again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 1.0%. If we get a 1.6% or 0.4%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
However, with the RBA rate decision coming in just 3 hours, we need to make sure that we only enter the market if and when we get our deviation.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.7 Previous 58.4
ACTION: BUY 60.0 SELL 55.0 USD/JPY
We’ll be looking for a possibility to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI today during the New York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some minor consolidation or even a very tightly traded market… Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month and possibly trend changes… And with the NFP scheduled on Friday, this release might have more impact than usual should we get a huge surprise.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 03/01/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.51M Previous 5.45M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.90M SELL 5.10M
We’ll be focusing on trading the Existing Home Sales today, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatilit,y especially if our tradable figures were hit. Given the fact that this is the last high impact news release of the week, we could expect to see some traders waiting for this release before committing to a trade…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 02/26/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
This is a preview of US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010. Read More...
… Taken from my Weekly Outlook Report February 22~26, 2010… After this analysis we saw perfect SELL entries on both EUR/USD close to 1.3700 and GBP/USD 1.5580 area… If you had a chance to read this report before the drop, you’d have been on the right side of the market.
Written on 02/21/2010 just before the risk aversion sentiment on Monday/Tuesday
Last week’s most notable news was probably the surprise rate hike by the Federal Reserve on its discount rate, from 0.50% to 0.75%, which raises the costs of borrowing from banks to other banks. This is not to be confused with the Federal Funds rate, which still remains at the current level of 0.25%.
This is a preview of Forex Market Analysis for the week of 02/22/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation deviation is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY). If the CPI number stays flat or decreases to 0.0% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY). Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
This is a preview of US Core CPI m/m 02/19/2010. Read More...
4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 3.6% Previous 2.9%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 3.9% SELL 3.3%
We’ll be focusing on the CPI release out of UK today using a surprise factor (or deviation) of 0.3%. If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 3.9%, which is way over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the Inflation number decreases to 3.3% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even with a small difference of 0.1%, market tend to overreac. If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.
This is a preview of UK CPI y/y 02/16/2010. Read More...
2:00am German Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
5:00am EU Flash GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
Action: N/A
We’ll be looking at both German Prelim GDP for the 4th Quarter 2009 GDP measurement. Since this is the first release of GDP for the quarter out of Germany, it is more likely to surprise the market than 2nd or 3rd releases. Since Germany and France are the two largest members of the European Union, their GDP releases makes up over 50% of the entire EU, therefore we’ll be looking at the market during their scheduled release time.
This is a preview of German Prelim GDP q/q & EU Flash GDP q/q 02/12/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A
We’ll be participating ECB (European Central Bank) Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet press conference today and he is going to be releasing the official ECB Interest Rate Statement along with a brief Q&A Session… Here is an overview of the situation
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 02/04/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.4%
ACTION: BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3% AUD/USD
We’ll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.1 Previous 49.8
ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY
We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI; it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.1, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 02/03/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 55.5 Previous 54.9
ACTION: BUY 58.0 SELL 53.0 USD/JPY
Our focus today is to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the New York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some correction in the recent rally of the greenback… Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month and possibly trend change.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10. Read More...
RBNZ is once again expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news companies. As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement during last RBNZ rate decision from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.
This is a preview of New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 01/27/10. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the first time in 2010 and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011. As the Federal Reserve may need more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, this rate decision will probably go as expected (or unchanged).
This is a preview of US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.95M Previous 6.54M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.35M SELL 5.55M
We’ll be trading the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer somewhat from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. But the reaction of USD may be different against other pairs… for instance, a better release should be bearish for EUR/USD; a worse than expected release will be bad for USD/JPY…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 01/25/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the CPI release out of UK today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is at 0.3%. If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 2.9%, which is over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the Inflation number decreases to 2.3% or remain at the same level as last release, (1.9%) we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even with a small difference of 0.1%, market tend to overreac. If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.
This is a preview of UK CPI y/y 01/19/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Core CPI release today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY). If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY). Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market islikely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. If you remember what I wrote last time, this is exactly the same consensus expectation as the market is looking at a low yet steady growth in U.S. Inflation for quite some time now…
This is a preview of US Core CPI m/m 01/15/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A
We’ll be listening to ECB (European Central Bank) Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet releasing official ECB Interest Rate Statement along with a brief Q&A Session… Here is an overview of the situation:
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.5 Previous 48.7
ACTION: BUY 53.0 SELL 48.0 USD/JPY
Our focus will be on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI, which is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for directional references on the near-term future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 50.5, in the event that 53.0 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.0 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and stronger EUR as USD suffers on a disappointing outlook.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services) 01/06/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
We will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4% and we will focus on the Retail Sales release instead of the Trade Balance, but of course we will only trade if there is no conflict between both releases, or it is probably best to sit out as the market may be extremely difficult to read. If we get a 1.0% or -02%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australian Retail Sales m/m 01/06/10. Read More...
Looking at the current market condition, I am seeing most traders along with their liquidities returning this week, which may provide some excellent market conditions as we kick off our own trading this week.
The last two weeks of 2009 was very quiet in the sense of scheduled news and unexpected news as most traders took some time off in celebration of yearend holidays. We saw USD maintaining its gains since the last rally, as the market has been at more or less a standstill… Equity market maintained its gains until the last trading day of 2009, and Crude Oil reclaimed the $80 mark once again.
This is a preview of FOREX – Market Outlook for 2010 – Forex Fundamental Analysis. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the last time in 2009 and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010. As FOMC rarely make any changes to the key interest rate at the end of the year, there is really no expectation for a surprise change. As far as FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke are concerned, they have stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the latter part of 2010…
This is a preview of FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision & Statement 12/16/09. Read More...
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RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news media companies. As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement and hawkish tone during previous RBNZ rate statements from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.
