We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
ACTION: 220K SELL EURUSD / 80K BUY EURUSD
ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator, traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend.
Here´s the forecast:
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.5 Previous 53.9
ACTION: 57.0 SELL EURUSD/ 52.0 BUY EURUSD
Trade Plan
We´ll be looking for around 2.5 points of deviation for this trade. If a 57.0 or better number is released, we could see some USD strength, thererefore SELL EURUSD. If the opposite is true, or 52.0 figure is released, expect to see weaker USD in the short term, therefore we should BUY EURUSD.
US New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we´re likely to see an inline release today.
Here is the forecast:
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 320 Previous 315K
ACTION: 390K SELL EURUSD / 250 SELL USDJPY
The Trade Plan
We´ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthen USD aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USDJPY. A stronger number could provide temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD therefore we should look to SELL EURUSD.
US Existing Home Sales is expected to rise slightly from the previous month as current foreclosure rate is still remaining resiliently high. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.65M Previous 4.42M
ACTION: USDCHF BUY 5.10M / USDJPY SELL 4.20M
The Trade Plan
Because the Housing sector is one of the most focused news events out of the US, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of the nation, and of the world, on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDCHF / -0.1% SELL USDJPY
We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.
Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.8% SELL EURUSD / -0.2% SELL USDJPY
We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.7% Previous 8.6%
ACTION: 220K BUY AUDJPY / 80K SELL USDJPY
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8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2158)
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