by Henry Liu on April 15, 2012
This past week was relatively quiet, with all European markets closed for holidays during early week, but the big reaction took place on Tuesday as European traders got their first chance to sell following last Friday’s disappointing US payrolls report, not mentioning how the Spanish government struggle to convince the world over its ambitious 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2013.
The equity market turned around during mid week, thanks in part to rumors of a very strong preliminary Q1 GDP reading out of China (the whisper number suggested +9%, well ahead of the +8.5% estimates), however the actual reported Chinese GDP figure turned out to be at +8.1%, which added further downward pressure to the already struggling risk aversion driven market…
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by Henry Liu on April 1, 2012
We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:
9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.7% SELL -0.3%
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by Henry Liu on March 21, 2012
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 1.0%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.5%, a reading of 0.0% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 1.0% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
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by Henry Liu on March 21, 2012
Today´s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet very tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
5:30am (NY Time) Forecast -0.5% Previous 0.9%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.1% SELL -1.0%
The Trade Plan
The monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it´s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.
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by Henry Liu on March 18, 2012
The better US economic data, Tuesday’s FOMC statement, the positive release of the annual bank stress tests, and the relative lack of news out of Europe, pushed risk sentiment higher this past week… Market’s sentiment changed after Tuesday’s FOMC statement where the Fed acknowledged the slowly improving economic conditions but there was no mention of anything QE3, in either the statement or speech by Chairman Bernanke.
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by Henry Liu on March 12, 2012
We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.
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by Henry Liu on February 27, 2012
We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%
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