by Henry Liu on October 30, 2009
Hi everyone,
I just wanted to say that with today’s unexpected turn of events from the U.S. GDP release, market has turned around from last 3 days of risk aversion concerns to an all out risk appetite and boosted gains of every major currency against the USD… This created a strong reversal on the GBP as it blew through several resistance points… and boy, did I ever hear about it from my subscribers! I spent almost half-day just replying emails to traders who just totally ignored the US GDP release and went short on Sterling. I got hate mails, critiques, and tons of emails from concerned subscribers, which I must say that I’m always happy to hear from…
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by Henry Liu on October 28, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.2% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.5% SELL 2.9%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. Analysts are already saying that we could be looking at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high. We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%. Therefore if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.9% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling.
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by Henry Liu on October 21, 2009
BOC releases a quarterly Monetary Policy Report providing direction over its monetary policy and future interest rate decisions. This report is probably not tradable unless BOC surprises the market by deviating from its recent statement during the interest rate decision just a week ago.
However, in the event BOC offers new insight into their future monetary policy and points to the possibility of hiking interest rate sooner than June of 2010, then we could see some buying of the CAD; if BOC Report maintain the same rhetoric as before, then not much market reaction could be expect… as a matter of fact, we might even see CAD getting weaker against the USD.
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by Henry Liu on August 19, 2009
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3%
Our focus will once again be on the UK Retail Sales, which measures activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for Sterling.
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by Henry Liu on July 22, 2009
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.6%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2%
Our focus will be on Retail Sales, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.
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