US Prelim GDP is also known as the 2nd Quarterly GDP release. Since GDP is the measurement of the economy, traders pay more attention to this release as any surprise numbers could change the short term trend… Here is the forecast:
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 3.5% Previous 3.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.8% SELL 3.2%
We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same time of this release, therefore I’d recommend to stay out of USD/CAD unless you are planning to trade both news together and they happen to have a conflict…
Here’s the forecast for U.S. Adv. GDP:
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.4% Previous 5.6%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.7% SELL 3.1%
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -149K Previous -203K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -80K SELL -230K
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.2% SELL 2.6%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number. Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.
8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -188K Previous -254K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY -120K SELL -258K
ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers, usually about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that were totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general direction of the market and sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -188K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
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Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2187)
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