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rate of inflation

Australia CPI q/q 10/27/09

by Henry Liu on October 26, 2009

8:30pm AU CPI q/q         Forecast 0.9%      Previous 0.8%
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 1.2%      SELL 0.6%

Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia.  As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside.  RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate  hike.  Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate.  Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.

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New Zealand CPI q/q 10/14/09

by Henry Liu on October 13, 2009

[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101409-nzdcpi/101409-nzdcpi.mp4 480 360]

5:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q    Forecast 0.8%   Previous 0.6%
ACTION: NZD/USD       BUY 1.1%      SELL 0.5% 

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.8% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower than 0.5%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down.

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Australia CPI q/q – Consumer Price Index 07/21/09

by Henry Liu on July 20, 2009

9:30pm(NY Time)   AU CPI q/q   Forecast 0.5%   Previous 0.1%
ACTION:   BUY 0.8%   SELL 0.2%   AUD/USD
             

If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 35 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop about 35 pips or so. I am looking for a deviation of at least 0.3% on the quarterly GDP, or I will skip the trade.

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