We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their finalinterest rate decision today for 2010, and consensus expectations are to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders. However, the important focus today will be the tentative statement that usually only accompanies BOE rate decision if there is a change, but BOE may just issue a statement regarding their APF program, as it has been much of the focus lately.
This is a preview of UK MPC Official Bank Rate Decision (BOE Interest Rate) 12/10/09. Read More...
RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% once again during today’s rate decision, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg. As a matter of fact, there seems to be no fundamental reason supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future, as the current inflationary target for NZD remains below the magical 2.0% level until perhaps 2011…
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision (Interest Rate) 12/09/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release its interest rate decision once again today, and consensus expectation is to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders. However, the important focus today will be the APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, or Quantitative Easing, or their Stimulus Program) program, which is expected by analysts to be increased by a minimum of 25 billion Pound to a maximum of 75 billion Pound…
This is a preview of UK BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 11/05/09. Read More...
RBA started the rate hike cycle during last rate decision and now analysts believe RBA will likely to hike rates by another 25 basis point to 3.50% today. Should RBA hike rates by 50 basis point instead of 25, we should see AUD/USD break upwards and possibly retest some resistance areas; however, if RBA decides to keep rates unchanged at the current level, we could see AUD/USD drop below the 0.8800 level.
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/02/09. Read More...
RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current rate of 2.50%, as unanimously agreed by 11 economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg. As a matter of fact, New Zealand’s economic outlook is still bleak, although NZD has appreciated over 32% in the past 6 months benefited from the surge in risk appetite sentiment, but sentiment alone will not make RBNZ hike rates…
Here are some of the facts worth considering, NZ’s Prime Minister John Key spoke today on the high rate of exchange of Kiwi offsetting any inflationary concerns, and if RBNZ hikes rates in 2009, he would be “very surprised”…
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 10/28/09. Read More...
RBNZ has been keeping its rate on hold for 2 rate decisions in a row as the last cut was back in April this year from 3.00% down to 2.50%. The fundamental outlook for NZ remains bleak as during the last rate decision Governor Bollard expressed a concern that rates could move lower.
What I would be looking for is a surprise rate cut decision or at least a cautionary tone over the future recovery as I don’t think RBNZ is at a position to be hiking rates; therefore I can almost be sure this release would be a somewhat bearish for NZD.
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 09/09/09. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
I’ll be trading the CA GDP month on month figure, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 08/31/09. Read More...
Our focus will once again be on the UK Retail Sales, which measures activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for Sterling.
The deviation for this release will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 80%. If we do not get at least of 0.6% of deviation, we will not take a trade based on the news, but based on the pre-market trend and the condition of the market at the release time.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 08/20/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on Retail Sales, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.
Our surprise factor will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 78%. If we do not get at least of 0.6% of deviation (or difference), we will not take a trade based on the news, but based on the pre-market trend and the condition of the market at the release time.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 07/23/09. Read More...
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