Forex Trade Plan For NZ Retail Sales m/m 07/13/10

NZD

We’ll be getting the Retail Sales figure out of New Zealand today, since Retail Sales is a direct reflection of the economy, this release is considered as an high impact release… Here’s the forecast:

6:45pm (NY Time) NZ Retail Sales   Forecast 0.6%     Previous -0.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD                                      BUY 1.2%                 SELL 0.0%

New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10

4:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6%  Previous 0.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.2%      SELL 0.0%

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision (Interest Rate) 12/09/09

3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% once again during today’s rate decision, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg.  As a matter of fact, there seems to be no fundamental reason supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future, as the current inflationary target for NZD remains below the magical 2.0% level until perhaps 2011…

New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 11/11/09

4:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.5%  Previous 1.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.1%      SELL -0.1%

today we’ll focus on the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference of at least 0.6% from the Forecast, therefore a positive 1.1% will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% will be a negative for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 10/28/09

4:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current rate of 2.50%, as unanimously agreed by 11 economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg.  As a matter of fact, New Zealand’s economic outlook is still bleak, although NZD has appreciated over 32% in the past 6 months benefited from the surge in risk appetite  sentiment, but sentiment alone will not make RBNZ hike rates…

New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 10/12/09

5:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6%  Previous -0.5%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.2%      SELL -0.1%

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 09/09/09

5:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%         SELL 2.25%

RBNZ has been keeping its rate on hold for 2 rate decisions in a row as the last cut was back in April this year from 3.00% down to 2.50%.  The fundamental outlook for NZ remains bleak as during the last rate decision Governor Bollard expressed a concern that rates could move lower. 

NZ Retail Sales m/m 08/13/09

6:45pm (NY Time)  NZ Retail Sales Forecast -0.3%  Previous -0.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 0.3%      SELL -1.0%

This is measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, we’ll be looking for a deviation of at least 0.6% from the forecast number, therefore a positive 0.3% will be bullish signal for NZD, or a -0.1% will be a negative signal for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal.