RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news media companies. As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement and hawkish tone during previous RBNZ rate statements from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 03/10/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -15K Previous -22K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY +55K SELL -85K
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity on the ADP NFP Employment Release today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data.
This is a preview of US ADP NFP Nonfarm Payroll 03/03/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -31K Previous -84K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY +50K SELL -100K
Our focus will be on the ADP NFP Employment Release once again today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.
This is a preview of US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10. Read More...
RBNZ is once again expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news companies. As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement during last RBNZ rate decision from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.
This is a preview of New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 01/27/10. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the first time in 2010 and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011. As the Federal Reserve may need more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, this rate decision will probably go as expected (or unchanged).
This is a preview of US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -74K Previous -169K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -10K SELL -140K
We will be trading the ADP NFP Employment Release. Since ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data, it is undoubtedly a very high impact release. However, about 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general risk sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -74K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
This is a preview of US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the last time in 2009 and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010. As FOMC rarely make any changes to the key interest rate at the end of the year, there is really no expectation for a surprise change. As far as FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke are concerned, they have stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the latter part of 2010…
This is a preview of FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision & Statement 12/16/09. Read More...
Last week’s major news was the Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday which possibly changed the short to long term trend of USD as we saw traders bought USD on the back of NFP release:
NFP Nov. 2009 -11K versus -119K (estimate)
NFP Oct. 2009 -111K (revision) versus -190K release
Unemploy Rate 11/2009 10.0% versus 10.2% (estimate)
What was more interesting with this data was the 3-month average trend of NFP with past revisions actually netted a positive +97K of release!
This is a preview of FOREX – NFP Nonfarm Payroll (12/04/09) and Market Analysis. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 15K Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 45K BUY -15K
We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -149K Previous -203K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -80K SELL -230K
Our focus today will be on the ADP Employment Release. ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general risk sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -149K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
This is a preview of US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 10K Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 40K BUY -20K
Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010. This sentiment is also echoed by FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke, who has stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the labor market improves. With last month’s NFP missing expectation, it is almost a certainty that we’ll get an unchanged verdict.
This is a preview of FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision And Statement Analysis 11/04/09. Read More...
8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -188K Previous -254K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY -120K SELL -258K
ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers, usually about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that were totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general direction of the market and sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -188K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
This is a preview of US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09. Read More...
RBA started the rate hike cycle during last rate decision and now analysts believe RBA will likely to hike rates by another 25 basis point to 3.50% today. Should RBA hike rates by 50 basis point instead of 25, we should see AUD/USD break upwards and possibly retest some resistance areas; however, if RBA decides to keep rates unchanged at the current level, we could see AUD/USD drop below the 0.8800 level.
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/02/09. Read More...
We will focus on the actual NFP release number, which is expected at -179K. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get -100K or -250K. We’ll wait for the revision number, which is -216K to come out first as the market usually overracts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get a conflicting directions between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) 10/02/09. Read More...
If you are looking for information on economic news and currency market [FOREX], look no further, because you’ve found it! You’ll not only find money-making trade plans and analysis on upcoming economic news, but also videos from actual trades taken live during these news releases based on the same trade plans, all for free!
If you are a beginner or never traded news releases, then please take a moment and read my post on the basics of forex news trading, you’ll get the basic idea of what are these economic news releases…
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This is a preview of New to FOREX News Trading or this blog? Start Here!. Read More...
Our primary focus will be on the actual release, which is expected to be at -223K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -150K or -300K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -247K. Market usually overracts with the Revision, so if it does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 09/04/09. Read More...
Canadian Employment Change is expected at -12.4K this month. If we get a surprise of at least 23K, making it at -35k or +15K, then the market will most likely move 40 pips within the hour, with about an 86% of chance.
If our BUY/SELL figure is hit. However, it is important to keep an eye also on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.7%, and if it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan. In the event of a conflict, it will be a no trade.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 09/04/09. Read More...
ADP is one of the largest payroll processing providers in the world, and every month it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers 2 days (sometimes a day) prior to the official Non-Farm Payroll release. This release is about 80% accurate to NFP. But the 20% of the time when it was inaccurate, its figures were totally off. This is a good news item to watch out for directional trade, if the numbers comes out at least 70K more or less of the Forecast -250K, then we will look to take a trade with the best looking currency pair.
This is a preview of US ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change 09/02/09. Read More...
Last week’s major news was the FOMC rate decision and the accompanied statement, while no one expected any changes in the current Interest rate, most were expecting some kind of optimistic follow-up from the Fed on back of that better than expected NFP releases last Friday. However, we got the usual rhetoric with a possible extension of the treasury purchases to the end of October instead of the previous end of September announcement.
Although it could hardly be called “extension” to the purchase program as the final amount remains unchanged, but the fact that there is no urgency to complete this stimulus program in September may provide argument for both bears and bulls.
This is a preview of Fundamental News Wrap-up for the week of August 10~14, 2009. Read More...
Currency Market Fundamental Outlook August 10, 2009
The main event last week was undoubtedly the Nonfarm Payroll changes, which not only went against the ADP release on Wednesday, but it was a landslide surprise that changed the predominant USD trend yet again.
If you remember the effect on the NFP report back in June and the market reaction in the subsequent week that follows, you’d see a likely pattern emerging, and that pattern is clearly going to be USD strength.
This is a preview of Forex Fundamental Economic Outlook 08/10/09. Read More...
Our first focus will be on the Headline Number, which is expected to be at -320K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -400K or -250K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -467K. Market is likely to overract with the Revision number, so if the revision does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 08/07/09. Read More...
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RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news media companies. As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement and hawkish tone during previous RBNZ rate statements from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.
