We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
This is a preview of US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.2% SELL 2.6%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number. Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.
This is a preview of US Prelim GDP q/q 11/24/09. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.71M Previous 5.57M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.11M SELL 5.37M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. It will be a typical battle between fundamental outlook and risk sentiment… With USD just rallied last week against all other majors, a positive release could accelerate USD’s decline as demand for risk appetite may return to the market.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales m/m 11/23/09. Read More...
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.4% BUY -0.2%
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP has a strong effect on the cash rate of the CAD, as better economy affects BOC’s rate outlook and future monetary policy.
This is a preview of Canada GDP (Gross Domestic Product) m/m 10/30/09. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.37M Previous 5.10M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.77M SELL 4.90M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, which is expected at 5.37M; Our tradable difference is 400K, or 0.4 Million; if the actual figure is lower, it would be bearish for the USD and good for risk aversion; if the number is higher, then it would be bullish for USD and good for risk appetite.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales m/m 10/23/09. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
I’ll be trading the CA GDP month on month figure, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 08/31/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US. Non-Farm payroll. It is a high impact report. If the number is better, which is good for Audi, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the number is worse, which is bad for Audi, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 6K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -40K or worse to be taking the trade safely.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 08/05/09. Read More...
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