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US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09

by Henry Liu on December 4, 2009

8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -120K  Previous -190K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -50K      SELL -200K

We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board… 


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US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09

by Henry Liu on November 5, 2009

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8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -173K  Previous -263K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -100K      SELL -250K

We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release.  We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K).  We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases  between the revision and the actual release.


18 comments