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Larry Summers

Trading The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll 06/04/10

by Henry Liu on June 3, 2010

8:30am (NY Time) US NFP      Forecast 515K       Previous 290K
 (Unemployment Rate 9.8%)
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 600K           SELL 450K

We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +515K with a previous release of 290K.  If you remember what took place during last NFP release, market reacted with extreme risk aversion sentiment despite of the surprise NFP release by positive 100K of deviation, and that’s mainly due to the unexpected rise in Unemployment Rate to 9.9% from 9.7%…


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8:30m (NY Time) US NFP      Forecast 185K       Previous -36K
                                                                 
(Unemployment Rate 9.7%)
ACTION:        SELL 100K USD/JPY                 BUY 250K USD/JPY

We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +185K with a previous release of -36K.  If you remember what took place during last NFP release, market reacted extremely positive for both USD and risk appetite sentiment as the market was originally expecting a much worse release due to the severe weather condition, but instead NFP came out better than expected with also a better release on the Unemployment Rate by 0.1%…


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8:30m (NY Time) US NFP      Forecast -56K       Previous -20K  (Unemployment Rate 9.8%)
ACTION:        SELL -120K USD/JPY                 BUY 20K USD/JPY

We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…


3 comments