Australia Employment Change 03/10/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on March 9, 2010 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change    Forecast 15.3K    Previous 52.7K
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 45K         SELL -15K

We’ll be focusing on the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia.  This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on March 4, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP      Forecast -56K       Previous -20K  (Unemployment Rate 9.8%)
ACTION:        SELL -120K USD/JPY                 BUY 20K USD/JPY

We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…

Australia Employment Change 02/10/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 10, 2010 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade | 5 Comments to Read

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change    Forecast 15.1K    Previous 35.2K
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 45K         SELL -15K

We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia.  This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 4, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | Read the First Comment

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Changes       Forecast 10K       Previous -85K
(Unemployment Rate 10.0%)

ACTION: EUR/USD               SELL -60K USD/JPY                 SELL 80K EUR/USD

We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery.  At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.

Canada Employment Change 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am CA Employment Change     Forecast 15.2K    Previous -2.6K       (Unemployment Rate     8.5%)
ACTION:             BUY -15K       SELL 45K            USD/CAD

We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.

Australian Employment Change m/m 01/13/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 12, 2010 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade | 3 Comments to Read

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change    Forecast 10.2K    Previous 31.2K
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 40K         SELL -20K

We’ll be looking forward to trade the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is very similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia.  This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 7, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 7 Comments to Read

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Changes       Forecast -3K       Previous -11K    (Unemployment Rate 10.1%)
ACTION: EUR/USD               BUY -73K         SELL 50K

We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K.  However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.

Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am CA Employment Change     Forecast 20.2K    Previous 79.1K       (Unemployment Rate     8.5%)
ACTION:             BUY -10K       SELL 50K            USD/CAD

We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. 

Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 8, 2009 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade | 2 Comments to Read

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes  Forecast 5.3K  Previous 24.5K
ACTION: AUD/USD    BUY +40K   SELL -25K

Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia.  This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 4, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 7 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -120K  Previous -190K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -50K      SELL -200K

We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board… 

Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 3, 2009 under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | 2 Comments to Read

7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes      Forecast 15K    Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD         SELL 45K     BUY -15K

We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. 

Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 10, 2009 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Currency Trading Tips | Be the First to Comment

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes  Forecast -10.0  Previous -40.6K
ACTION: AUD/USD    BUY +15K   SELL -40K

As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 5, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 18 Comments to Read

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8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -173K  Previous -263K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -100K      SELL -250K

We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release.  We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K).  We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases  between the revision and the actual release.

Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes      Forecast 10K    Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD         SELL 40K     BUY -20K

Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.  With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.