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ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact in the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rate unchanged at 1.00%… Here´s the forecast:
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD SELL 0.75%
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to keep its borrowing costs at 4.25%, as per general market consensus, after last meeting’s surprise decision of keeping the rates at the same level…
Here´s the forecast for this news release:
12:30am (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.25% Previous 4.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 4.00% / BUY 4.25% (Unchanged)
The Trade Plan
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will BUY AUDUSD… If RBA cuts rates, we should also see a strong reaction in the market to SELL the AUD as the market will be surprised.
The last trading week of the quarter was uneventful as investors celebrated the equity market performance… European stocks were had their best quarter since 2009, up 7%, while Japan’s Nikkei index rose nearly 20% in the quarter, for its best performance in 24 years. MSCI’s benchmark emerging equity index was up 13.7% on the year. In the US, the S&P500 rose 12%, for its best quarterly performance since Q3 2009, while the DJIA had its best Q1 since 1998.
Today’s Trade Result: +15 pips
March 2012: +60 pips
February 2012: +288 pips
January 2012: +80.5 pips
December 2011: +67.5 pips
November 2011: +12.5 pips
October 2011: +965.5 pips
September 2011: +289.5 pips
Let’s analyze the market and review the events that took place overnight during the Asian and European market hours. We’ll analyze these news as we start trading today’s US market session, Wednesday March 14, 2012.
Today’s Trade Result: +85 pips
March 2012: +45 pips
February 2012: +288 pips
January 2012: +80.5 pips
December 2011: +67.5 pips
November 2011: +12.5 pips
October 2011: +965.5 pips
September 2011: +289.5 pips
Today’s FOMC Meeting will probably not surprise the market as much… Prepared to be disappointed if you are expecting another round of bond purchases, or Quantitative Easing, as current market climate has improved and it may just be premature to expect another round of QE3; on the other hand, if you are expecting the Feds to be hawkish and perhaps raise speculations on rate hikes, think again! Bernanke is on a mission to keep rates long until 2014, just a few months of positive NFPs is NOT ENOUGH for big Ben to change his mind…
Major events that took place this past week were:
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