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We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%
Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus for today. Here is the forecast:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.2% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.1% SELL -0.4%
The Trade Plan
Since this is the second release of the 4th quarterly GDP for 2011, we´re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of -0.2% and previous release of -0.2% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.
MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it´s customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no changes to either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, UK´s quantitative easing program); today will be the first time for a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the forecast:
4:30am NY Time UK MPC Minutes Forecast 0-0-9 Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: N/A
ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact in the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rate unchanged at 1.00%… Here´s the forecast:
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD SELL 0.75%
BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE´s final decision turns out to be a surprise, here´s the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APT (Asset Purchasing Target) Forecast 325B Previous 275B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) / SELL 350B (APT)
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to cut the borrowing costs to 4.00%, as per general market consensus…
Here´s the forecast for this news release:
10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.00% Previous 4.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 4.00% / BUY 4.25%
The Trade Plan
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will BUY AUDUSD as today’s decision is not based on unanimous consensus… If RBA cuts rates, we should also see a possibility to SELL as the market will be equally surprised.
Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD, and perhaps set the tone for the rest of the year…
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