by Henry Liu on December 8, 2009
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes Forecast 5.3K Previous 24.5K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY +40K SELL -25K
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
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by Henry Liu on November 30, 2009
Last week was indeed a volatile week due to the low liquidity. And as I have warned in my last Weekly Outlook report about the excessive market movement from my previous experiences over the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays, this Thanksgiving didn’t disappoint and certainly lived up to its reputation – and then some…
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by Henry Liu on November 22, 2009
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.71M Previous 5.57M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.11M SELL 5.37M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. It will be a typical battle between fundamental outlook and risk sentiment… With USD just rallied last week against all other majors, a positive release could accelerate USD’s decline as demand for risk appetite may return to the market.
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by Henry Liu on November 10, 2009
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes Forecast -10.0 Previous -40.6K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY +15K SELL -40K
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
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by Henry Liu on October 22, 2009
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.37M Previous 5.10M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.77M SELL 4.90M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, which is expected at 5.37M; Our tradable difference is 400K, or 0.4 Million; if the actual figure is lower, it would be bearish for the USD and good for risk aversion; if the number is higher, then it would be bullish for USD and good for risk appetite.
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by Henry Liu on October 22, 2009
4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.6%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.4% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be trading the Prelim GDP q/q, which is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise to curb inflation.
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