Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be to look for opportunities for entry if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
9:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 1.0% Previous 0.9%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.7%
High Impact
Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be twofold. First, we’ll look for a possible pre-buying of AUD ahead of this release during early Asian trading session for a possible sentiment trade; and Second, we will look for opportunities to enter the market if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
9:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
7:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 1.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.7% SELL 0.0%
We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike.
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes Forecast 5.3K Previous 24.5K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY +40K SELL -25K
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes Forecast -10.0 Previous -40.6K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY +15K SELL -40K
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.8%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate hike. Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101909-rbaminutes/101909-rbaminutes.mp4 480 360]
RBA(Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to release its Meeting Minutes for the rate decision 2 weeks ago; and if you remember, it was a surprise to the currency market as a whole as RBA hiked it’s Cash Rate by 25 basis points, from 3.00% to 3.25%. As with most analysts, I didn’t expect RBA to hike rates until 2010, and I was genuinely surprised by this decision, and of course, market responded with a frenzied demand for AUD and pushed AUD/USD pair to new 2009 highs.
