We’ll be focusing on the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 03/10/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will keep rates unchaged until 2011.
Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy… As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 03/04/2010. Read More...
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the expectations are to keep both their official rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound (at least for the time being). The important focus as usual today will be the accompanying BOE Statement if they decide to release one.
This is a preview of UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 03/04/2010. Read More...
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity from the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by analysts expectation from Bloomberg to be at 0.9%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number or flat (0.0%) release.
This is a preview of Australia GDP q/q 03/02/2010. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.8% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: BUY 1.4% SELL 0.2% AUD/USD
We’ll be looking for a possible again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 1.0%. If we get a 1.6% or 0.4%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
However, with the RBA rate decision coming in just 3 hours, we need to make sure that we only enter the market if and when we get our deviation.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.1% SELL 0.7%
We’ll be focusing on a possible trade from the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as:
“the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
This is a preview of US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010. Read More...
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
This is a preview of UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the month on month Retail Sales release today from UK; it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP or Gross Domestic Product, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010. Read More...
2:00am German Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
5:00am EU Flash GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
Action: N/A
We’ll be looking at both German Prelim GDP for the 4th Quarter 2009 GDP measurement. Since this is the first release of GDP for the quarter out of Germany, it is more likely to surprise the market than 2nd or 3rd releases. Since Germany and France are the two largest members of the European Union, their GDP releases makes up over 50% of the entire EU, therefore we’ll be looking at the market during their scheduled release time.
This is a preview of German Prelim GDP q/q & EU Flash GDP q/q 02/12/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 02/10/10. Read More...
Bank of England is going to release its quarterly Inflation report on economic growth and projection for the next 24 months. This report will be release together with a press conference by BOE Governor King along with other members of the MPC.
This quarterly Inflation report usually details BOE’s view over the current economic condition and future monetary policy. With the recent hawkish rhetoric from various BOE officials over the state of UK economy and a rather disappointing prelim GDP release of just 0.1% on the 4th quarter of 2009, there is a possibility for this report to go either way. Therefore, we’ll be watching this report and react should the market sentiment lean towards either buy or sell Sterling.
This is a preview of BOE Inflation Report 02/10/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate at 1.00% or unchanged once again this month. The majority of analysts surveyed seems to agree to this sentiment as ECB is likely to keep rates unchaged at the current level until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece… As a matter of fact, should Greece default from unable to fulfill its debt obligations, the entire Euro Zone will suffer greatly and EUR could depreciate even below parity against the USD.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 02/04/10. Read More...
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the consensus expectations are to keep current rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound. The important focus today will be the decision concerning the APF program as it is expected to expire later this month. If MPC decides to take a “wait and see” stance on the APF, expect to see GBP soaring against other majors as this is a strong message reflecting the recovery of UK’s economy.
This is a preview of UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 02/04/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.4%
ACTION: BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3% AUD/USD
We’ll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking at the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event… with that being said however, we’ll also have the USD quarterly advanced GDP release at the same time… The whole world will be focused on that release, therefore I’d definitely look at the US release first before jumping in any trades…
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 01/29/10. Read More...
4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.7% SELL 0.0%
We’ll be trading the much anticipated UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q4 2009. As we know, GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.
This is a preview of UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/26/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking to tradethe Retail Sales release today from UK, it is a month on month release and it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a hugepart of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10. Read More...
Today we’ll trade the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference (or deviation) of at least 0.6% from the Forecasted number, therefore a positive 1.2% (or better) will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a 0.0% (or worse) will be a bearish signal for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.
This is a preview of New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate. ECB will probably keep rates unchaged at the current level until possible until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially with the recent news out of Greece… Therefore there would be no real justification for a rate hike, regardless of what speculators are thinking. However, in order to fight against growing concerns over inflation, ECB has already started a series of withdrawals of their liquidity program since last year, which means that chances for a surprise rate hike would be much less possible, although the gesture of winding down their stimulus is undoubtedly positive for the EURO.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking forward to trade the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is very similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australian Employment Change m/m 01/13/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their interest rate decision today once again for 2010, and consensus expectations are to keep rates at 0.50% and the APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound, which are probably no surprise to most traders. However, the important focus today will be the tentative statement accompanying the rate decision, which may reveal BOE’s future monetary policy.
This is a preview of BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 01/07/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
We will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4% and we will focus on the Retail Sales release instead of the Trade Balance, but of course we will only trade if there is no conflict between both releases, or it is probably best to sit out as the market may be extremely difficult to read. If we get a 1.0% or -02%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australian Retail Sales m/m 01/06/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Retail Sales release today, which is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the low liquidity condition of the market.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 12/17/09. Read More...
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