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Forex Trading Plan For ECB Interest Rate Decision 09/02/10

September 1, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

trichet
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ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, it is widely believed that ECB will keep current rate unchanged. Here’s the forecast:

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD BUY 1.25% SELL 0.75%

The Trade Plan
ECB rate decision comes in two part, the first one is the 7:45am rate announcement followed by the 8:30am Press Conference where ECB chief Trichet issues the official statement on this rate decision. Since it is extremely unlikely to get a surprise from ECB, there is usually no volatility following this release, we should focus on the actual Trichet’s speech in 45 minutes.

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Filed Under: EUR ECB Interest Rate, Europe, Forex News Trade Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Trading Plan For AU GDP q/q 08/31/10

August 30, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

AUD
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Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD. Here is the forecast:

9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%

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Filed Under: AUD GDP q/q, Australia, Forex News Trade Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Forex Trade Plan For Canada GDP m/m 08/31/10

August 30, 2010 By Henry Liu 2 Comments

CAD
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We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today. Here’s the forecast:

8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%

The Trade Plan
I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a -0.1% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or higher… With recent strength risk aversion sentiment driven market and stock market tumbling, a stronger GDP should provide some support for the CAD and I’ll be looking for a Retracement Trade Method for this release.

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Filed Under: CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Forex Trade Plan For AU Retail Sales 08/30/10

August 30, 2010 By Henry Liu 1 Comment

AUD
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We’ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you’ve been following news out of Australia, you’d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here’s the forecast:

9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2%

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Filed Under: AUD Retail Sales, Australia, Forex News Trade Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

US Prelim GDP q/q Forex Trading Plan (08/27/10)

August 26, 2010 By Henry Liu 2 Comments

USA
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Here’s the forecast for U.S. Prelim. GDP:

8:30am (NY Time) US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 1.5% Previous 2.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.8% SELL 1.2%

The Trade Plan
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the second of three quarterly (Q2) release of U.S. GDP number (Prelim). We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 1.5%. Therefore if we get a 1.8% on the Prelim 2nd quarterly GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 1.2% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

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Filed Under: Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Forex Trading Plan For UK Revised GDP q/q 08/27/10

August 26, 2010 By Henry Liu 6 Comments

UK
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Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus today. Here is the forecast:

4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 1.1% Previous 1.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.4% SELL 0.8%

The Trade Plan
Since this is the second release of the 2nd quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 1.1% and previous release of 1.1% (Prelim GDP on July 26th), we may not get a surprise release after all.

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Filed Under: Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Forex Video & Analysis For UK Retail Sales 8/19/20

August 18, 2010 By Henry Liu 13 Comments

UK
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Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:

4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.2%

The Trade Plan
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.

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Filed Under: Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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