We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
ACTION: 220K SELL EURUSD / 80K BUY EURUSD
We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 24K Previous 17.5k
Unemployment Rate 7.5%
ACTION: EURCAD SELL 50K / BUY USDCAD -5K
Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD, and perhaps set the tone for the rest of the year…
Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.5%
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.7% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.1% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.2% SELL -0.4%
Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be to look for opportunities for entry if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
Today´s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet very tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%
The Trade Plan
The monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it´s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.
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Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 16 ~ 20, 2012
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Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 9 ~ 13, 2012 The first real trading week for the new year in markets started with investors focused on Europe. US and European markets were ... (2270) Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2158)
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