Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD, and perhaps set the tone for the rest of the year…
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will announce that No rate change today…
3:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZDUSD BUY 2.75%
The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to leave the official rate at 2.5% during this meeting; however, in the unlikely event that Gov. Bollard surprises the market and hike rates to 2.75% or higher, we should see an immediate strong demand in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade BUY NZD/USD.
Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be to look for opportunities for entry if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% / SELL 0.7%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.4%, a reading of -0.3% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 0.7% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDCHF / -0.1% SELL USDJPY
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 10.0K Previous -6.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.3% Previous 5.3%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 35.0K SELL -15.0K
The Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce their rate decision today at 9:00am sharp.
Here´s what analysts expect:
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.75% SELL 1.25%
The Trade Plan
Most analyst agree that the BOC will hold rates at 1.00%. I´ll be trading this release with a 0.25% deviation using Spike Trading method. In the event of a surprise hike it´s almost guaranteed that we´ll see strong market movement immediately after the release.
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8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
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