by Henry Liu on January 15, 2012
The news on Friday was that S&P finally downgraded a number of euro zone member nations, including France’s sovereign ratingby one notch, from AAA to AA+. Markets had muted reaction considering that the moves had been in much focus thus largely priced in. There were also more signs that Europe would fall back to a ‘technical recession’ in early 2012, especially with disappointing forecasts for initial GDP data seen in many parts of Europe, including Germany, in other European news, both the ECB and BoE kept interest rates and their monetary policies on hold this week, as expected by analysts.
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by Henry Liu on January 8, 2012
The first real trading week for the new year in markets started with investors focused on Europe. US and European markets were closed on Monday for the New Year’s holiday and opened higher on Tuesday due to some better Germany employment and Chinese PMI data, plus a strong US ISM manufacturing report. But the market soon turned to the worse as S&P’s threat to downgrade the sovereign ratings continued to drive the market to risk aversion and of course, reports that the Spanish region of Valencia would delay a bond payment didn’t help at all…
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by Henry Liu on January 2, 2012
Happy New Year 2012. Here’s a quick wrap-up:
Market liquidity during the last week of 2011 were extremely light worldwide during the holiday week with US and European equity indices were flat with Asia markets down slightly. 2011 has been a disappointing year for equities, with most major European and Asian indices down: DAX ended 15% lower, the CAC 40 declined 17%, FTSE 100 index fell 5.5%, the Nikkei 225 closed down 17%, and the Hang Seng Index was down nearly 20% in 2011.
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by Henry Liu on December 20, 2011
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% / SELL 0.8%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.4%, a reading of -0.1% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 0.8% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
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by Henry Liu on December 18, 2011
Let me that this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year… With that being said, here is a fair warning: As we get close to the end of the year, market liquidity is going to become thinner and thinner, therefore it is best to stay out of the market and enjoy this holiday season… however, if you are still planning to trade this week, then here are the news releases you need to watch out for:
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by Henry Liu on December 11, 2011
Market focus this week was largely on the European Union leaders’ summit on Thursday and Friday, as well as the ECB rate decision on Thursday morning. A sense of optimism helped to drive down yields on both Italian and Spanish 10-year debt below 6% for the first time in weeks during early week, however that sentiment was short-lived as S&P put the sovereign ratings of all 17 euro zone nations — including its six AAA-rated members — on watch negative, later on Monday evening.
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by Henry Liu on December 5, 2011
Few of the major headlines took place last week, starting with the PBoC cutting its Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 50bps, sending the message that Chinese officials are concerned about the impact of slowing global economic growth… then there were the coordinated action by the Fed, the ECB, the Swiss National Bank, the BoE, BoJ and the Bank of Canada to pump more liquidity into the global financial system. The Fed cut the dollar swap lines to 50 bps/OIS (from 100 bps), making it significantly cheaper for to borrow dollars and inject them into their markets, reducing the chances of any credit crunch concerns. Global equities jumped sharply higher on the news, and on Wednesday the DJIA soared 490 points, its largest one-day gain since March 23, 2009.
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Forex Market Review and Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 14 ~ 18, 2012)
Forex Trading Strategies #3 – The Correct Trend
Forex Trading Strategies #4 – Support and Resistance
US FOMC Meeting Minutes – May 16, 2012 – Forex Strategy
Forex Trading Strategies #5 – Market Psychology
Forex Trading Strategies #2 – The Right Timing
US Core CPI – May 15, 2012 – Forex Strategy
Forex Trading Strategies #1 – The Real Reason