by Henry Liu on January 26, 2012
Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.5%
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.7% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
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by Henry Liu on January 25, 2012
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will announce that No rate change today…
3:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZDUSD BUY 2.75%
The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to leave the official rate at 2.5% during this meeting; however, in the unlikely event that Gov. Bollard surprises the market and hike rates to 2.75% or higher, we should see an immediate strong demand in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade BUY NZD/USD.
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by Henry Liu on January 23, 2012
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% / SELL 0.7%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.4%, a reading of -0.3% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 0.7% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
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by Henry Liu on January 22, 2012
Global equity indices gained this week as traders once again predictably reacted to the S&P sovereign downgrades in a typical ”buy on rumor, sell on news” scenario, which is understandable as the uncertainty of this action is finally over. As a result, risk sentiment was the primary driver of the market and news out of China’s +8.9% Q4 GDP reading also added to the sentiment. However, there were also a few headlines that brought the focus back to the European debt crisis, including Greece’s debt haircuts and IMF’s cut on world GDP for 2012. For the week the DJIA gained 2.4%, the NASDAQ 2.8%, and the S&P 500 2%, marking the third straight week of gains for all three indices.
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by Henry Liu on January 15, 2012
The news on Friday was that S&P finally downgraded a number of euro zone member nations, including France’s sovereign ratingby one notch, from AAA to AA+. Markets had muted reaction considering that the moves had been in much focus thus largely priced in. There were also more signs that Europe would fall back to a ‘technical recession’ in early 2012, especially with disappointing forecasts for initial GDP data seen in many parts of Europe, including Germany, in other European news, both the ECB and BoE kept interest rates and their monetary policies on hold this week, as expected by analysts.
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by Henry Liu on January 11, 2012
We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.
Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.8% SELL EURUSD / -0.2% SELL USDJPY
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by Henry Liu on January 11, 2012
ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact in the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rate unchanged at 1.00%… Here´s the forecast:
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD SELL 0.75%
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