We’ll be looking forward to trade the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with U.S Core Retail Sales being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We’ll be looking for a deviation of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 47K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 03/12/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 03/10/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 03/04/2010. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will be issuing its Overnight Rate decisions once again today and this meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, making this news event probably the most important event for the day.
This is what I wrote for the last two BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate 03/02/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 02/10/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing once again on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 02/04/10. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the first time in 2010, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
This is what I wrote for the last BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:
This is a preview of BOC Overnight Rate Decision 01/19/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking forward to trade the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is very similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australian Employment Change m/m 01/13/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. As with PMIs, they are considered as leading indicators, and a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI m/m 01/07/10. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the last time in 2009, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
Although there are no official statements or overwhelming market sentiment pointing to a possible hike, as BOC Governor Mark Carney stated in his last rate statement that BOC will maintain rates at low level until the end of first quarter 2010, but with the recent employment changes and GDP release from Canada, speculations of a possible hike or at least acceleration of their monetary policy might tilt the sentiment to a stronger CAD prior to the release…
This is a preview of BOC Overnight Rate Decision (Interest Rate Decision) 12/08/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 15K Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 45K BUY -15K
We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 10K Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 40K BUY -20K
Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -188K Previous -254K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY -120K SELL -258K
ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers, usually about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that were totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general direction of the market and sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -188K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
This is a preview of US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09. Read More...
We will focus on the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is expected at +5.0K this month. If we get a surprise release of of at least 25K, making it at +30k or -20K, we can conservatively expect the market to move 40 pips within the hour, based on a historical probability of about 80% of chance.
Even if our BUY/SELL figure is hit, it is still important to keep an eye on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.8%. If it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan, and in the event of a conflict, we will stay out of the market.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 10/09/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we would SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 10/07/09. Read More...
We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. As with PMIs, they are considered as leading indicators, and a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 10/06/09. Read More...
We will focus on the actual NFP release number, which is expected at -179K. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get -100K or -250K. We’ll wait for the revision number, which is -216K to come out first as the market usually overracts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get a conflicting directions between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) 10/02/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is considered as a high impact report. If the release is better, which will be good for AUD, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the release is worse, which will be bad for AUD, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 10K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -38K or worse to be taking the trade safely. According to past history, if we do get our tradable releases, market has 80% of probability to move 40+ pips in the direction of our release.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09. Read More...
Our primary focus will be on the actual release, which is expected to be at -223K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -150K or -300K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -247K. Market usually overracts with the Revision, so if it does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 09/04/09. Read More...
Canadian Employment Change is expected at -12.4K this month. If we get a surprise of at least 23K, making it at -35k or +15K, then the market will most likely move 40 pips within the hour, with about an 86% of chance.
If our BUY/SELL figure is hit. However, it is important to keep an eye also on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.7%, and if it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan. In the event of a conflict, it will be a no trade.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 09/04/09. Read More...
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