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We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today along with US Adv. GDP q/q, I’d suggest to concentrate on the U.S. release first, if there is no trading opportunity there, then come back and look at the Canadian release. Here’s the forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
Hey folks:
Henry Liu here again with an overview of upcoming high impact tradable releases for the week. As usual, I will be sending you more detailed analysis on each release about a day before their schedule.
So following the tradition, let’s look at what took place before last week:
EUR Gained 2.5% Against USD
GBP Gained 1.5% Against USD
CAD Lost 2.0% Against USD
AUD Lost 1.0% Against USD
NZD Remained Unchanged
JPY Gained 2.0% Against USD
CHF Gained 0.5% Against USD
We’ve got several trades this week that worked out according to my signals. I hope you were able to make some pips, I certainly did 
Here are the results:
NEWS TRADING
1. Tue July 20, 2010 9:00am EST (NY Time) CA BOC Overnight Rate- No Trade.
2. Thu July 22, 2010 4:30am EST (NY Time) UK Retail Sales m/m – No Trade
UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%
Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL -0.1%
The Trade Plan
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.
Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their Overnight Rate (Interest Rate) and the decision will be announced today at 9:00am sharp. Along with the rate decision, BOC Carney will also announce a Rate Statement to further explain today’s decision. Here’s what analysts are expecting:
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Forecast 0.75% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY USD/CAD 0.50% SELL USD/CAD 1.00%
We’ll be getting the Retail Sales figure out of New Zealand today, since Retail Sales is a direct reflection of the economy, this release is considered as an high impact release… Here’s the forecast:
6:45pm (NY Time) NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.0%
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD N/A
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will keep rates unchaged until 2011 or at the very least, towards the end of 2010 before tightening of their monetary policy. As a matter of fact, according to Credit Suisse Overnight Swap Index, there is zero percent of change for ECB to hike rates during this meeting.
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