We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will keep rates unchaged until 2011.
Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy… As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 03/04/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.51M Previous 5.45M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.90M SELL 5.10M
We’ll be focusing on trading the Existing Home Sales today, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatilit,y especially if our tradable figures were hit. Given the fact that this is the last high impact news release of the week, we could expect to see some traders waiting for this release before committing to a trade…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 02/26/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate at 1.00% or unchanged once again this month. The majority of analysts surveyed seems to agree to this sentiment as ECB is likely to keep rates unchaged at the current level until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece… As a matter of fact, should Greece default from unable to fulfill its debt obligations, the entire Euro Zone will suffer greatly and EUR could depreciate even below parity against the USD.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 02/04/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.95M Previous 6.54M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.35M SELL 5.55M
We’ll be trading the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer somewhat from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. But the reaction of USD may be different against other pairs… for instance, a better release should be bearish for EUR/USD; a worse than expected release will be bad for USD/JPY…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 01/25/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate. ECB will probably keep rates unchaged at the current level until possible until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially with the recent news out of Greece… Therefore there would be no real justification for a rate hike, regardless of what speculators are thinking. However, in order to fight against growing concerns over inflation, ECB has already started a series of withdrawals of their liquidity program since last year, which means that chances for a surprise rate hike would be much less possible, although the gesture of winding down their stimulus is undoubtedly positive for the EURO.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
It is widely expected that ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate. ECB’s next interest rate move is likely to be a hike, but it probably won’t take place until the end of first quarter of 2010 as I’ve pointed out in the analysis during last ECB Rate Decision.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision (Interest rate decision) 12/03/09. Read More...
2:00pm (NY Time) US FOMC Meeting Minutes
ACTION: N/A
FOMC Meeting minutes is usually scheduled to be released 3 weeks after the Fed Fund Rate decision. Below is the entire statement released on Nov. 4, 2009, I’ve taken the liberty of marking some positive and negative comments:
This is a preview of US FOMC Meeting Minutes 11/24/09. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.71M Previous 5.57M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.11M SELL 5.37M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. It will be a typical battle between fundamental outlook and risk sentiment… With USD just rallied last week against all other majors, a positive release could accelerate USD’s decline as demand for risk appetite may return to the market.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales m/m 11/23/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed by different news agencies (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc…) seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate and the time has passed for further rate cuts. ECB’s next interest rate move is likely to be a hike, but it probably won’t take place until the end of first quarter of 2010.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 11/05/09. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.37M Previous 5.10M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.77M SELL 4.90M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, which is expected at 5.37M; Our tradable difference is 400K, or 0.4 Million; if the actual figure is lower, it would be bearish for the USD and good for risk aversion; if the number is higher, then it would be bullish for USD and good for risk appetite.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales m/m 10/23/09. Read More...
Last week was a surprising week to say the least, as the biggest news out of the entire currency market was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiking its bank rate by 0.25% to 3.25% and surprised the entire world in the process…
Needless to say, immediately after the release, Equity market ended its downward correction, and a renewed sense of risk appetite took over, pushing all high-yield currencies, commodity currencies, Equity indices, to fresh new 2009 highs.
This is a preview of Market Economic Outlook as of 10/12/09. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) will most likely leave rates at an unchanged level of 1.00% once again. It is almost impossible for ECB to surprise the market at this point and cut or hike current rate by 0.25%. Numerous of ECB officials, including chairman Trichet, stated recently that the current rate is appropriate, the expectation for ECB rates among analysts is pretty much neutral.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 10/08/09. Read More...
We will focus on the actual NFP release number, which is expected at -179K. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get -100K or -250K. We’ll wait for the revision number, which is -216K to come out first as the market usually overracts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get a conflicting directions between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) 10/02/09. Read More...
Tomorrow starts the 2-day G20 meeting in Pittsburgh as the group of 20 nations meet and discuss a wide range of issues, including the current market inbalances, exit plans over the economic recovery, protectionism, and of course the situation with the IMF.
Obviously high on the agenda will be the issues of limiting executive compensation in the financial sector and possibly a move to increase reserve capital of banks in order to lower investment leverage that was responsible for the crisis in the first place.
This is a preview of G20 Meeting September 24~25, 2009. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.36M Previous 5.24M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.76M SELL 4.90M
Existing Home Sales is expected at 5.36M, and our safe deviation is 400K, or 0.4M; if the number is lower, it would be bad for the USD and good for risk aversion; if the number is higher, then it would be good for USD and good for risk appetite.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 09/24/09. Read More...
Our primary focus will be on the actual release, which is expected to be at -223K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -150K or -300K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -247K. Market usually overracts with the Revision, so if it does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 09/04/09. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) will probably leave rates at an unchanged level of 1.00%. It is very unlikely for ECB to surprise the market and cut or hike current rate by 0.25%. As numerous of ECB officials stated recently that the current rate is appropriate, the expectation for ECB rates among analysts is pretty much neutral. Furthermore ECB is concerned over the imbalanced economic recovery over its member countries, therefore there would be no justification for a rate hike; and God forbids should ECB cut the current rate and send the world a message that ECB has been incompetent and clearly behind the curve and needs a rate cut at this late stage in order to somehow stimulate their economies…
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 09/03/09. Read More...
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