We’ll be focusing on the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 03/10/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will keep rates unchaged until 2011.
Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy… As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 03/04/2010. Read More...
2:00am German Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
5:00am EU Flash GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
Action: N/A
We’ll be looking at both German Prelim GDP for the 4th Quarter 2009 GDP measurement. Since this is the first release of GDP for the quarter out of Germany, it is more likely to surprise the market than 2nd or 3rd releases. Since Germany and France are the two largest members of the European Union, their GDP releases makes up over 50% of the entire EU, therefore we’ll be looking at the market during their scheduled release time.
This is a preview of German Prelim GDP q/q & EU Flash GDP q/q 02/12/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 02/10/10. Read More...
Bank of England is going to release its quarterly Inflation report on economic growth and projection for the next 24 months. This report will be release together with a press conference by BOE Governor King along with other members of the MPC.
This quarterly Inflation report usually details BOE’s view over the current economic condition and future monetary policy. With the recent hawkish rhetoric from various BOE officials over the state of UK economy and a rather disappointing prelim GDP release of just 0.1% on the 4th quarter of 2009, there is a possibility for this report to go either way. Therefore, we’ll be watching this report and react should the market sentiment lean towards either buy or sell Sterling.
This is a preview of BOE Inflation Report 02/10/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate at 1.00% or unchanged once again this month. The majority of analysts surveyed seems to agree to this sentiment as ECB is likely to keep rates unchaged at the current level until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece… As a matter of fact, should Greece default from unable to fulfill its debt obligations, the entire Euro Zone will suffer greatly and EUR could depreciate even below parity against the USD.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 02/04/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate. ECB will probably keep rates unchaged at the current level until possible until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially with the recent news out of Greece… Therefore there would be no real justification for a rate hike, regardless of what speculators are thinking. However, in order to fight against growing concerns over inflation, ECB has already started a series of withdrawals of their liquidity program since last year, which means that chances for a surprise rate hike would be much less possible, although the gesture of winding down their stimulus is undoubtedly positive for the EURO.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking forward to trade the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is very similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australian Employment Change m/m 01/13/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
FOMC will be releasing its meeting minutes from the last interest rate decision in 2009. If you recall, the last FOMC meeting were somewhat neutral and disappointing as traders were looking for a more bullish tone from the statement. One of the important phrases that traders were looking for was “…keeping rates low… Extended period.”, which if the Feds were to eliminate the “extended period.” part, it would signal a change in the overall monetary policy… However, FOMC decided to keep the phrase and most of the FOMC Statement remain unchanged from the previous release… Here is the complete context:
This is a preview of US FOMC Meeting Minutes 01/06/10. Read More...
Looking at the current market condition, I am seeing most traders along with their liquidities returning this week, which may provide some excellent market conditions as we kick off our own trading this week.
The last two weeks of 2009 was very quiet in the sense of scheduled news and unexpected news as most traders took some time off in celebration of yearend holidays. We saw USD maintaining its gains since the last rally, as the market has been at more or less a standstill… Equity market maintained its gains until the last trading day of 2009, and Crude Oil reclaimed the $80 mark once again.
This is a preview of FOREX – Market Outlook for 2010 – Forex Fundamental Analysis. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 15K Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 45K BUY -15K
We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 10K Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 40K BUY -20K
Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
We will focus on the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is expected at +5.0K this month. If we get a surprise release of of at least 25K, making it at +30k or -20K, we can conservatively expect the market to move 40 pips within the hour, based on a historical probability of about 80% of chance.
Even if our BUY/SELL figure is hit, it is still important to keep an eye on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.8%. If it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan, and in the event of a conflict, we will stay out of the market.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 10/09/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we would SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 10/07/09. Read More...
We will focus on the actual NFP release number, which is expected at -179K. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get -100K or -250K. We’ll wait for the revision number, which is -216K to come out first as the market usually overracts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get a conflicting directions between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) 10/02/09. Read More...
Market has been very unforgiving to the USD lately as the greenback slips into further weakness; as a matter of fact, the more recovery we see, more reason for USD to weaken, at least until Bernanke starts rate hiking cycle…
Let me explain,
This is a preview of Where is US Dollar going?. Read More...
I have compiled a list based on their respective economic outlook from recent economic indicators and news releases. USD is excluded it is considered more as a safe-haven and the “new carry” currency… U.S. economic outlook might not have much influence on the direction of USD, and as a matter of fact we might see a scenario of USD vs ALL Majors in the near term.
As far as USD being the “new carry” currency, just check the 3-month LIBOR rate, you’ll see that USD is at 0.29%, GBP at 0.57%, EUR at 0.72%, and JPY at 0.35%. With USD being the lowest cost currency to borrow from, it makes sense to see further decline of USD, and it will remain so until the actual overnight rate starts to rise.
This is a preview of Global Fundamental Outlook Score Card As of 09/21/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is considered as a high impact report. If the release is better, which will be good for AUD, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the release is worse, which will be bad for AUD, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 10K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -38K or worse to be taking the trade safely. According to past history, if we do get our tradable releases, market has 80% of probability to move 40+ pips in the direction of our release.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09. Read More...
Our primary focus will be on the actual release, which is expected to be at -223K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -150K or -300K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -247K. Market usually overracts with the Revision, so if it does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 09/04/09. Read More...
Canadian Employment Change is expected at -12.4K this month. If we get a surprise of at least 23K, making it at -35k or +15K, then the market will most likely move 40 pips within the hour, with about an 86% of chance.
If our BUY/SELL figure is hit. However, it is important to keep an eye also on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.7%, and if it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan. In the event of a conflict, it will be a no trade.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 09/04/09. Read More...
This is a quarterly report from BOE on projections of inflation and the economy for the next 2 years. It is a very high impact report and it could affect the short-term to mid-term trend of Sterling.
If BOE is optimistic in its projection and focus on recovery, we should see immediately appreciation of GBP; if the opposite is true, then Sterling will probably drop substantially. We’ll look at market reaction then wait for entry.
This is a preview of UK BOE Inflation Report 08/12/09. Read More...
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