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We´ll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at 4:30am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here´s the forecast:
4:28am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 53.5 Previous 54.0
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 56.5 SELL 51.0
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% / SELL 0.7%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.4%, a reading of -0.3% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 0.7% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
Today´s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet very tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%
The Trade Plan
The monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it´s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.
ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact in the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rate unchanged at 1.00%… Here´s the forecast:
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD SELL 0.75%
We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.7% Previous 8.6%
ACTION: 220K BUY AUDJPY / 80K SELL USDJPY
We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 18K Previous -18.6K
Unemployment Rate 7.4%
ACTION: EURCAD SELL 45K / BUY USDCAD -10K
The Trade Plan
The Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 7:00am sharp today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (18K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 45K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
We´ll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at 4:30am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here´s the forecast:
4:28am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 51.5 Previous 52.1
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 54.0 SELL 49.0
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