We’ll be looking forward to trade the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with U.S Core Retail Sales being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We’ll be looking for a deviation of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 47K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 03/12/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will keep rates unchaged until 2011.
Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy… As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 03/04/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.0 Previous 50.5
ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY
We’ll focusing on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI today, or better known as the U.S. Services PMI, and as all Purchasing Manager’s Indexes, it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.0, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see some USD strength and JPY weakness; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 03/03/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Services PMI figure today out of UK and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure. If we get at least 57.0 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs. If we get a 53.0 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.
This is a preview of UK Services PMI 03/03/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.51M Previous 5.45M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.90M SELL 5.10M
We’ll be focusing on trading the Existing Home Sales today, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatilit,y especially if our tradable figures were hit. Given the fact that this is the last high impact news release of the week, we could expect to see some traders waiting for this release before committing to a trade…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 02/26/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
This is a preview of US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll be looking to trade the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline release today; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.0%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of the Headline or Retail Sales release. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
This is a preview of Canada Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the month on month Retail Sales release today from UK; it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP or Gross Domestic Product, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate at 1.00% or unchanged once again this month. The majority of analysts surveyed seems to agree to this sentiment as ECB is likely to keep rates unchaged at the current level until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece… As a matter of fact, should Greece default from unable to fulfill its debt obligations, the entire Euro Zone will suffer greatly and EUR could depreciate even below parity against the USD.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 02/04/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.1 Previous 49.8
ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY
We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI; it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.1, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 02/03/10. Read More...
We will be focusing on the Services PMI figure today and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure. If we get at least 58.6 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs. If we get a 54.7 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.
This is a preview of UK Services PMI 02/03/10. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10. Read More...
We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike.
This is a preview of Australia CPI q/q 01/26/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.95M Previous 6.54M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.35M SELL 5.55M
We’ll be trading the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer somewhat from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. But the reaction of USD may be different against other pairs… for instance, a better release should be bearish for EUR/USD; a worse than expected release will be bad for USD/JPY…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 01/25/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% SELL 0.9%
We’ll be focusing on Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.3% with a previous release at 0.2%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking to tradethe Retail Sales release today from UK, it is a month on month release and it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a hugepart of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged. Analysts surveyed seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate. ECB will probably keep rates unchaged at the current level until possible until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially with the recent news out of Greece… Therefore there would be no real justification for a rate hike, regardless of what speculators are thinking. However, in order to fight against growing concerns over inflation, ECB has already started a series of withdrawals of their liquidity program since last year, which means that chances for a surprise rate hike would be much less possible, although the gesture of winding down their stimulus is undoubtedly positive for the EURO.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.5 Previous 48.7
ACTION: BUY 53.0 SELL 48.0 USD/JPY
Our focus will be on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI, which is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for directional references on the near-term future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 50.5, in the event that 53.0 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.0 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and stronger EUR as USD suffers on a disappointing outlook.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services) 01/06/10. Read More...
FOMC will be releasing its meeting minutes from the last interest rate decision in 2009. If you recall, the last FOMC meeting were somewhat neutral and disappointing as traders were looking for a more bullish tone from the statement. One of the important phrases that traders were looking for was “…keeping rates low… Extended period.”, which if the Feds were to eliminate the “extended period.” part, it would signal a change in the overall monetary policy… However, FOMC decided to keep the phrase and most of the FOMC Statement remain unchanged from the previous release… Here is the complete context:
This is a preview of US FOMC Meeting Minutes 01/06/10. Read More...
We will be trading the Services PMI figure today and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure. If we get at least 58.7 or better, we could see further demand in the GBP and we should BUY GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs. If we get a 54.7 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.
Because PMI’s are leading indicators and are likely to set the tone for January 2010 for GBP, especially the Services PMI’s as from UK since UK’s economy is 72% services based; therefore traders look at this release for early direction in UK’s economy.
This is a preview of UK Services PMI 01/06/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Retail Sales release today, which is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the low liquidity condition of the market.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 12/17/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09. Read More...
RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% once again during today’s rate decision, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg. As a matter of fact, there seems to be no fundamental reason supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future, as the current inflationary target for NZD remains below the magical 2.0% level until perhaps 2011…
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision (Interest Rate) 12/09/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 15K Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 45K BUY -15K
We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
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