We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A
Trichet usually delivers an official statement along with a Q&A session 45 minutes after the official rate decision at 8:30am. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for clues from Trichet’s tone over future monetary policy directions. If Trichet is hawkish over the future of EURO, namely talking about exit strategey and possibility of rate hikes, then we will see EURO gaining across the board; however, if Trichet is dovish, focused on how slow the recovery might be and also on the issues over the imbalances of recovery within the members of EURO Zone, we’ll probably see EURO trade lower against other currencies… Furthermore, Trichet will never tell you what you want to hear… therefore you need to listen between the lines and keep an eye on the market for confirmation.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 12/03/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
Trichet will deliver an official statement along with a Q&A session afterwards. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for clues from Trichet’s tone for future monetary policy directions. If Trichet is hawkish over the future of EURO, namely talking about exit strategey and possibility of hikig rates, then we will see EURO gain; if Trichet is dovish, focused on the real picture of the recovery, then we will see EURO trade lower against all other currencies.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 11/05/09. Read More...
Trichet will once again deliver a statement along with a Long and boring Q&A session afterwards. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always listening to Trichet’s tone for future ECB policies. If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see EURO gain, if Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO lose against all other currencies.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 10/08/09. Read More...
Trichet will deliver a statement along with a Long and Boring Q&A session after. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for Trichet’s tone for future ECB policies. If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see EURO gain, if Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO losing against all other currencies.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 09/03/09. Read More...
Trichet will deliver a statement along with a pretty-lengthy Q&A session after. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for Trichet’s tone for future ECB policies. If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see EURO gain, if Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO losing against all other currencies.
If you have never traded this release, it is better to stay out of the market. Wait until around 9:30am then follow the trend. If Trichet is hawkish, EUR/USD will gain throughout the session and may even carry over to Friday. Therefore there are plenty of opportunities to trade after the market has already established itself.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 08/06/09. Read More...
Fed. Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify in front of House Financial Services Committe in Washington DC on the semi-annual policy report. If Bernanke is hawkish in his tones over future economy outlook, then we should see risk appetite sentiment where USD should gain substantially against JPY; however, if the chairman’s tone were rather dovish, or expresses his concerns over the prolonged recession and contraction of the economy, then we will likely see risk aversion sentiment driving the market, where JPY should gain against USD.
This is a preview of US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Testifies 07/21/09. Read More...
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