by Henry Liu on April 15, 2012
This past week was relatively quiet, with all European markets closed for holidays during early week, but the big reaction took place on Tuesday as European traders got their first chance to sell following last Friday’s disappointing US payrolls report, not mentioning how the Spanish government struggle to convince the world over its ambitious 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2013.
The equity market turned around during mid week, thanks in part to rumors of a very strong preliminary Q1 GDP reading out of China (the whisper number suggested +9%, well ahead of the +8.5% estimates), however the actual reported Chinese GDP figure turned out to be at +8.1%, which added further downward pressure to the already struggling risk aversion driven market…
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by Henry Liu on April 12, 2012
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: 0.0% BUY EURUSD
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by Henry Liu on April 8, 2012
All major market moving events last week were from the U.S., starting with FOMC Minutes on Tuesday which shattered market’s expectation for another round of QE, followed by a NFP release figure that was much lower than even the most bearish analyst’s forecast… as a matter of fact, because of this release, speculation for QE3 is once again alive. Here’s the detail of the release:
March Nonfarm Payroll: 120K versus 205KE
March Private Payroll: 121K versus 215KE
March Manufacturing Payroll: 37K versus 20KE
Birth-Death Adjustment: +90K
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by Henry Liu on March 22, 2012
CPI is also known a Inflation and our focus will be on the Core Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and Energy, or CPI ex Volatile Items…
Here´s the forecast:
7:00am CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 0.6%
The Trade Plan
The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, around 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of 0.0% or worse to BUY USD/CAD, or a +0.6% or better to SELL USD/CAD.
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by Henry Liu on March 19, 2012
We´ll be trading the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 4:30am NY Time today. We´ll be looking at the yearly release figure and the market could react with lots of volatility as CPI is the basic measurement of Inflation, therefore expect to see more exaggerated moves if we get a huge surprise release. Here is the forecast:
4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 3.4% Previous 3.6%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 3.8% / SELL 3.0%
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by Henry Liu on March 15, 2012
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.4% BUY USDCHF
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by Henry Liu on March 11, 2012
Major events that took place this past week were:
- Greece defaulted on its debt this week as the ISDA declared that the PSI exchange and the subsequent CAC clause constituted a “credit event,” thereby triggering CDS… Considering that the Greek default arrived three years to the day from the post-Lehman lows in US equity indices, it is quite ironic in nature.
- Chinese Premier Wen lowered China’s 2012 GDP targets at the National People’s Congress on Monday, as expected, and a slew of data out of Beijing came in softer than expected.
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Forex Market Review and Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 14 ~ 18, 2012)
Forex Trading Strategies #3 – The Correct Trend
Forex Trading Strategies #4 – Support and Resistance
US FOMC Meeting Minutes – May 16, 2012 – Forex Strategy
Forex Trading Strategies #5 – Market Psychology
Forex Trading Strategies #2 – The Right Timing
Forex Trading Strategies #1 – The Real Reason