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7:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 1.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.7% SELL 0.0%
We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike.
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.95M Previous 6.54M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.35M SELL 5.55M
We’ll be trading the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer somewhat from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. But the reaction of USD may be different against other pairs… for instance, a better release should be bearish for EUR/USD; a worse than expected release will be bad for USD/JPY…
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.71M Previous 5.57M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.11M SELL 5.37M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. It will be a typical battle between fundamental outlook and risk sentiment… With USD just rallied last week against all other majors, a positive release could accelerate USD’s decline as demand for risk appetite may return to the market.
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.8%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate hike. Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.
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