We’ll be focusing on the Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. today. Since we have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, we should concentrate on the Core Release as it’s a better picture of the retail activities. However, it’s important to make sure there is no conflict between both releases or we should just stay out of the market until a new direction has been established.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 03/12/2010. Read More...
We’ll be looking forward to trade the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with U.S Core Retail Sales being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We’ll be looking for a deviation of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 47K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 03/12/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 03/10/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will be issuing its Overnight Rate decisions once again today and this meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, making this news event probably the most important event for the day.
This is what I wrote for the last two BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate 03/02/2010. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.8% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: BUY 1.4% SELL 0.2% AUD/USD
We’ll be looking for a possible again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 1.0%. If we get a 1.6% or 0.4%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
However, with the RBA rate decision coming in just 3 hours, we need to make sure that we only enter the market if and when we get our deviation.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.1% SELL 0.7%
We’ll be focusing on a possible trade from the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as:
“the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. once again today. Since we have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, we should concentrate on the Core Release as it provides a better picture of the retail activities than the headline Retail Sales release. However, it’s important to make sure there is no conflict between both releases or we should just stay out of the market.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 02/12/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 02/10/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.4%
ACTION: BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3% AUD/USD
We’ll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking at the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event… with that being said however, we’ll also have the USD quarterly advanced GDP release at the same time… The whole world will be focused on that release, therefore I’d definitely look at the US release first before jumping in any trades…
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 01/29/10. Read More...
Today we’ll trade the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference (or deviation) of at least 0.6% from the Forecasted number, therefore a positive 1.2% (or better) will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a 0.0% (or worse) will be a bearish signal for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.
This is a preview of New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the first time in 2010, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
This is what I wrote for the last BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:
This is a preview of BOC Overnight Rate Decision 01/19/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am along with Trichet’s press conference; however, since Trichet may delay his press conference a bit, we should focus on this news and then possibly go back to Trichet later. Obviously it is important to trade other pairs than the EUR/USD.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking forward to trade the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is very similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australian Employment Change m/m 01/13/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
We will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4% and we will focus on the Retail Sales release instead of the Trade Balance, but of course we will only trade if there is no conflict between both releases, or it is probably best to sit out as the market may be extremely difficult to read. If we get a 1.0% or -02%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australian Retail Sales m/m 01/06/10. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.2% 8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 1.4% ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF (CORE) BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
We will be trading Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, and it is important that there is no conflict with these numbers or this will be an automatic no trade. The Core release is usually more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the volatile Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 12/11/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the last time in 2009, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
Although there are no official statements or overwhelming market sentiment pointing to a possible hike, as BOC Governor Mark Carney stated in his last rate statement that BOC will maintain rates at low level until the end of first quarter 2010, but with the recent employment changes and GDP release from Canada, speculations of a possible hike or at least acceleration of their monetary policy might tilt the sentiment to a stronger CAD prior to the release…
This is a preview of BOC Overnight Rate Decision (Interest Rate Decision) 12/08/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 15K Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 45K BUY -15K
We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
Our focus today will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4%. Therefore, if we get a 1.0% or -021%, we’d have our trigger to get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release, with a high probability of seeing the market moving over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 12/02/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am. It is important that there is no conflict with the numbers between in order for us to get into a trade. The Core release is more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the seasonal Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading, and the headline is currently forecasted at 1.0% with a previous release of -2.1%.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 11/16/09. Read More...
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09. Read More...
today we’ll focus on the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference of at least 0.6% from the Forecast, therefore a positive 1.1% will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% will be a negative for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.
This is a preview of New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 11/11/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
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