We’re also getting the Core Retail Sales release from Canada today, and with the Core CPI being released just about 90 minutes earlier, it’s important to take the context of the market into consideration before planning for this trade. If we are trading at a support level on a better than expected CPI release, it is possible that market may not move much from this news even if our tradable deviation is hit… With that said, let’s look at the forecast for this news:
Consensus
Core Retail Sales is another high impact release from Canada today, and with the Core CPI being released just about 90 minutes earlier, it’s important to take the context of the market into consideration before planning for this trade. If we are trading at a support level on a better than expected CPI release, it is possible that market may not move much from this news even if our tradable deviation is hit… With that said, let’s look at the forecast for this news:
8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 1.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Core Retail Sales release today and not the headline Retail Sales release; the core release has a forecast expectation of 0.5% with a previous release at 0.4%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, but excluding most volatile components, Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of the Headline or Retail Sales release and varies seasonly. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy, especially with the recent recalls by Toyota and Honda.
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll be looking to trade the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline release today; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.0%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of the Headline or Retail Sales release. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% SELL 0.9%
We’ll be focusing on Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.3% with a previous release at 0.2%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their finalinterest rate decision today for 2010, and consensus expectations are to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders. However, the important focus today will be the tentative statement that usually only accompanies BOE rate decision if there is a change, but BOE may just issue a statement regarding their APF program, as it has been much of the focus lately.
Forex Market Review and Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 14 ~ 18, 2012)
Forex Trading Strategies #3 – The Correct Trend
Forex Trading Strategies #4 – Support and Resistance
Forex Trading Strategies #5 – Market Psychology
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