8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.2% 8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 1.4% ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF (CORE) BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
We will be trading Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, and it is important that there is no conflict with these numbers or this will be an automatic no trade. The Core release is usually more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the volatile Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading.
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As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
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7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 10K Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 40K BUY -20K
Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.
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Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2176)
