Confirmation

US Adv. GDP q/q 10/29/09

by Henry Liu on October 28, 2009

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.2% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.5% SELL 2.9%

Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. Analysts are already saying that we could be looking at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high. We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%. Therefore if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.9% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling.

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Confirmation

US Adv. GDP q/q 10/29/09

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