US Prelim GDP is also known as the 2nd Quarterly GDP release. Since GDP is the measurement of the economy, traders pay more attention to this release as any surprise numbers could change the short term trend… Here is the forecast:
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 3.5% Previous 3.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.8% SELL 3.2%
We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same time of this release, therefore I’d recommend to stay out of USD/CAD unless you are planning to trade both news together and they happen to have a conflict…
Here’s the forecast for U.S. Adv. GDP:
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.4% Previous 5.6%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.7% SELL 3.1%
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A
Trichet usually delivers an official statement along with a Q&A session 45 minutes after the official rate decision at 8:30am. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for clues from Trichet’s tone over future monetary policy directions. If Trichet is hawkish over the future of EURO, namely talking about exit strategey and possibility of rate hikes, then we will see EURO gaining across the board; however, if Trichet is dovish, focused on how slow the recovery might be and also on the issues over the imbalances of recovery within the members of EURO Zone, we’ll probably see EURO trade lower against other currencies… Furthermore, Trichet will never tell you what you want to hear… therefore you need to listen between the lines and keep an eye on the market for confirmation.
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.2% SELL 2.6%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number. Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.
Hi everyone,
I just wanted to say that with today’s unexpected turn of events from the U.S. GDP release, market has turned around from last 3 days of risk aversion concerns to an all out risk appetite and boosted gains of every major currency against the USD… This created a strong reversal on the GBP as it blew through several resistance points… and boy, did I ever hear about it from my subscribers! I spent almost half-day just replying emails to traders who just totally ignored the US GDP release and went short on Sterling. I got hate mails, critiques, and tons of emails from concerned subscribers, which I must say that I’m always happy to hear from…
 |
 |
 |
Forex News Trading US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) 02/03/12 We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s ... (3301) Forex Analysis For US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Employment 01/06/12 We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s ... (3067)
Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 16 ~ 20, 2012
The news on Friday was that S&P finally downgraded a number of euro zone member nations, including France's sovereign ratingby ... (2521)
Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 9 ~ 13, 2012 The first real trading week for the new year in markets started with investors focused on Europe. US and European markets were ... (2281)
Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2187)
 |
 |
 |
 |
