by Henry Liu on December 7, 2009
Last week’s major news was the Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday which possibly changed the short to long term trend of USD as we saw traders bought USD on the back of NFP release:
NFP Nov. 2009 -11K versus -119K (estimate)
NFP Oct. 2009 -111K (revision) versus -190K release
Unemploy Rate 11/2009 10.0% versus 10.2% (estimate)
What was more interesting with this data was the 3-month average trend of NFP with past revisions actually netted a positive +97K of release!
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by Henry Liu on November 2, 2009
10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 3.50% Previous 3.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 3.75% SELL 3.25%
RBA started the rate hike cycle during last rate decision and now analysts believe RBA will likely to hike rates by another 25 basis point to 3.50% today. Should RBA hike rates by 50 basis point instead of 25, we should see AUD/USD break upwards and possibly retest some resistance areas; however, if RBA decides to keep rates unchanged at the current level, we could see AUD/USD drop below the 0.8800 level.
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