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We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today along with US Adv. GDP q/q, I’d suggest to concentrate on the U.S. release first, if there is no trading opportunity there, then come back and look at the Canadian release. Here’s the forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
We’ve got several trades this week that worked out according to my signals. I hope you were able to make some pips, I certainly did 
Here are the results:
NEWS TRADING
1. Tue July 20, 2010 9:00am EST (NY Time) CA BOC Overnight Rate- No Trade.
2. Thu July 22, 2010 4:30am EST (NY Time) UK Retail Sales m/m – No Trade
CPI or Consumer Price Index is direct measurement of inflation, which is a high impact release that could have long term effect on CAD, it is undoubtedly a high impact release that will be the focus of early NY trading session. Here is the forecast:
CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
We’re also getting the Core Retail Sales release from Canada today, let’s look at the forecast:
Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous -1.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 1.1%
The Trade Plan
I’m going to be looking for a deviation of 0.6% for this news. Since the forecast is at +0.5%, if we get a -0.1% or worse, it would be negative for the CAD and we’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 1.1% of actual release, I’ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their Overnight Rate (Interest Rate) and the decision will be announced today at 9:00am sharp. Along with the rate decision, BOC Carney will also announce a Rate Statement to further explain today’s decision. Here’s what analysts are expecting:
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Forecast 0.75% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY USD/CAD 0.50% SELL USD/CAD 1.00%
10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 64.0 Previous 62.7
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 60.0 SELL 67.0
We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI (IVEY Purchasing Manager’s Index) from Canadatoday, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today, and with BOC already starting its rate tightening policy, we could expect the currency market to pay attention to this release as a stronger GDP should definitely add more expectation for BOC to keep hiking rates… Here is the forecast for Canada GDP:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
We’re also getting the Core Retail Sales release from Canada, let’s look at the forecast for this news:
8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.0% Previous 1.7%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.6% SELL 0.6%
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/091709-ukretail/091709-ukretail.mp4 480 360] 4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.4% ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.8% … [Read More...]
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 318K Previous 309K ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 390K SELL 250K We’ll be looking for a possible trade from … [Read More...]
10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 3.75% Previous 3.50% ACTION: AUD/USD N/A Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 3.75% … [Read More...]
8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll Forecast -320K Previous -467K ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -250K SELL -400K Our first focus will be on the Headline Number, which is expected … [Read More...]
Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release: 4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.3% ACTION: … [Read More...]
UK quarterly GDP release is always an high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number: 4:30am … [Read More...]
Here is a basic plan to trade US Core Retail Sales which is scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am NY Time, and here are the forecasts: 8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales … [Read More...]
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