We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
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8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.
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We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release. We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release.
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We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada, not the headline release, which has a consensus expectation of 0.6% instead of the 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release on the Retail sales number means more consumption, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a more accurate look of the actual economy.
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Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2176)
