US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 4, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | Read the First Comment

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Changes       Forecast 10K       Previous -85K
(Unemployment Rate 10.0%)

ACTION: EUR/USD               SELL -60K USD/JPY                 SELL 80K EUR/USD

We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery.  At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 7, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 7 Comments to Read

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Changes       Forecast -3K       Previous -11K    (Unemployment Rate 10.1%)
ACTION: EUR/USD               BUY -73K         SELL 50K

We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K.  However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 4, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 7 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -120K  Previous -190K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -50K      SELL -200K

We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…