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Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD. Here is the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.9%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL 0.3%
Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be twofold. First, we’ll look for a possible pre-buying of AUD ahead of this release during early Asian trading session for a possible sentiment trade; and Second, we will look for opportunities to enter the market if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
9:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity from the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by analysts expectation from Bloomberg to be at 0.9%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number or flat (0.0%) release.
7:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 1.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.7% SELL 0.0%
We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike.
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%
We’ll be focusing on the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by a wide range of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg to be at 0.4%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number.
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Retail Sales m/m Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.9%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
The plan for this release is to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.5%. Therefore, if we get a 1.1% or -0.1%, we’d have our trigger to get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release, with a high probability of seeing the market moving over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.8%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate hike. Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.
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